As missiles rain down on Riyadh, WWE's Crown Jewel dilemma is becoming unavoidable
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It's the most intriguing boardroom storyline in pro-wrestling — and one you shouldn't expect to see in the next season of "WWE Unreal . " Should WWE go ahead with its Crown Jewel event, scheduled to take place Nov. 7 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, or opt for a safer alternative back in the U.S.?
That the Saudi security situation has deteriorated in the weeks after this year's Crown Jewel was first announced on Sept. 1 is an understatement. Since then, we've seen the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launch a barrage of missile attacks on Riyadh airport , claiming the lives of at least 20 people and injuring at least 370 in what is already the deadliest attack on Saudi soil in more than a decade.
Right now, WWE is insisting the show will go ahead — a decision that flies in the face of what other businesses and sports events are doing. Just this week, we've seen a bunch of major events in Riyadh postponed, including Saudi Arabia's annual Davos in the Desert, as well as the Six Kings Slam tennis tournament and Saudi International golf tournament.
Why is WWE plowing ahead with Crown Jewel when others are playing it safe? As ever, money talks. Anyone who has spent five minutes following TKO's financials knows how important the Saudis are for WWE — in recent years, they've contributed around one quarter of the company's live-event revenues. The average Saudi show brings in more money than this year's WrestleMania.
Forgoing that reported $50 million fee for Crown Jewel might be one thing. But the tougher question is what it might mean for the future relationship with the Saudis, particularly when the Kingdom is looking to ramp up its investment in WWE in order to bring WrestleMania to Riyadh next year.
We don't know exactly how much Saudi Arabia is shelling out for 'Mania 43, though the estimates of $150 million would appear credible. If anything, they could be said to be a little conservative, given that WrestleMania is at least three times bigger than the typical WWE PLE. What is certain, though, is that this will be the largest payment yet for WWE.
All of which brings us to Turki Alalshikh, the man who controls the Saudi purse strings. Perhaps the most intriguing twist in this whole Crown Jewel saga is the reports that WWE insiders are worried Alalshikh's glazing of Saul "Canelo" Alvarez — who is set to fight in Riyadh on Oct. 31 — on social media is a preemptive dig at those in TKO towers.
How so? When "Canelo" confirmed he would be going through with the fight, Alalshikh posted "hard times reveal true friends." One way to read that is a coded warning that those who cancel their commitments aren't true friends of Turki Alalshikh — and that's always a dangerous position to be in. Not just in the world of combat sports.
Would the country really pull the plug on SaudiMania if WWE canceled Crown Jewel? All common sense would suggest not. But that's the problem with relying on one source for such a hefty chunk of your revenue — you can't really afford to call their bluff. On the other hand, it's not like the other course of action is safe either, with the risk of missiles raining down on Riyadh airport. So what's a TKO executive to do?
If it's so dangerous, you might ask, why is "Canelo" fighting there on Halloween? Well, you'd probably have to ask him. Which is sort of the point: "Canelo" is one man who can make his own decision whether to go to Riyadh to collect his purse or not. (He's also a man who gets punched for a living, so he probably has a different outlook on risk than your typical Wall Street suit.)
More seriously, "Canelo" isn't a corporate entity like TKO. He doesn't have to take a whole production crew, or send dozens of supporting talent on commercial jets into Riyadh airport. He doesn't have to justify the fallout to shareholders should the proverbial mess really hit the fan. He's never going to be dragged in front of Congress like the bosses of Enron and Facebook when they faced scandals.
So given all that, will WWE go through with the show? Without knowing what's in Nick Khan's head, it's hard to do much more than speculate at this point. Obviously one thing that could influence the decision is how the security situation holds up over the next few weeks. Right now, it's been over a week since the last attack on Riyadh, but fighting continues in Yemen.
According to credible media reports, WWE does at least have a backup venue in the States if they need it. Though that's still going to leave an alleged $50 million hole in the next earnings report and a bunch of awkward questions about WrestleMania 43. Even a single emoji from Alalshikh's social media profile could hammer the TKO stock price.
In that situation, I don't doubt they could weather the storm in the long run. But the more pertinent question would be, why they didn't see the dark clouds on the horizon beforehand? If you're going to jump into bed with an absolute monarchy in one of the world's most unstable regions, can you really be surprised when things get sticky?
That's the main problem here: WWE might be between a rock and a hard place with Crown Jewel, but you can't say they weren't the ones who walked into that situation in the first place. Can they get themselves out of it without triggering a bigger headache down the line? Over to you, Nick Khan.